# UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 23:15:30 GMT. 24h change +35.9pp, 24h volume $1.5M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-ali7-pol1-2026-05-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ali7-pol1-2026-05-16
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T23:15:30.087Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +20.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +35.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +34.4pp |
| 24h volume | $1.5M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.5M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $397.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Alice Ardelean" if Alice Ardelean is officially declared the winner of the fight against Polyana Viana at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Polyana Viana" if Polyana Viana is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 35.9pp in 24h with 3.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 5h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xee00…cea1` — 248,759.29 shares
- `0x160d…5295` — 205,017.02 shares
- `0xa49b…4c40` — 130,039.06 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 47,553.781 shares
- `0xba8c…e77d` — 42,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xdbad…9c95` — 194,510.71 shares
- `0xfbf3…b218` — 187,755.888 shares
- `0x12ec…41ae` — 86,408.397 shares
- `0x39d3…9ef0` — 72,718.865 shares
- `0x23c8…f293` — 45,833.99 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T00:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T23:14:04.000Z |
| Range | 58¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +34.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-ali7-pol1-2026-05-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims) — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T23:15:30.087Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-ali7-pol1-2026-05-16.
```

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