# UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 23:00:54 GMT. 24h change -37.5pp, 24h volume $367.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-cla5-jos54-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-cla5-jos54-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T23:00:54.543Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -37.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -39.5pp |
| 24h volume | $367.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $388.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $67.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Clayton Carpenter" if Clayton Carpenter is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jose Ochoa at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Jose Ochoa" if Jose Ochoa is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 5h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 122,258.41 shares
- `0xe7e1…ec43` — 29,999.894 shares
- `0xc660…bd28` — 15,749.603 shares
- `0xdbad…9c95` — 14,999.919 shares
- `0x6f8b…01aa` — 13,980.532 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4bff…fc26` — 139,687.33 shares
- `0xa49b…4c40` — 60,200.31 shares
- `0x1d7f…a878` — 10,000 shares
- `0x9e5e…fd91` — 8,200 shares
- `0x6db5…e279` — 8,136.84 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T00:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T23:00:09.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 45¢ |
| Net change | -38.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-cla5-jos54-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T23:00:54.543Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-cla5-jos54-2026-05-09.
```

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