# UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Prelims)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 23:42:33 GMT. 24h change +60.5pp, 24h volume $941.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-cod3-and10-2026-05-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-cod3-and10-2026-05-16
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T23:42:33.419Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +73.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +60.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +62.9pp |
| 24h volume | $941.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $963.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $306.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Cody Brundage" if Cody Brundage is officially declared the winner of the fight against Andre Petroski at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Andre Petroski" if Andre Petroski is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 60.5pp in 24h with 3.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 4h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdbad…9c95` — 175,000 shares
- `0xa49b…4c40` — 90,579.96 shares
- `0x1482…aab2` — 80,000 shares
- `0xefdd…017f` — 63,801.32 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 50,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4bff…fc26` — 634,101.033 shares
- `0x9c57…427e` — 10,164.344 shares
- `0x7966…6f94` — 8,999.883 shares
- `0x6bb3…758e` — 5,060.79 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 4,411.911 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T00:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T23:41:07.000Z |
| Range | 34¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +63.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-cod3-and10-2026-05-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Prelims) — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T23:42:33.419Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-cod3-and10-2026-05-16.
```

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