# UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 23:14:53 GMT. 24h change -39.5pp, 24h volume $1.0M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-dan20-lui12-2026-05-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-dan20-lui12-2026-05-16
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T23:14:53.463Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -39.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -51.4pp |
| 24h volume | $1.0M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $163.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Daniel Barez" if Daniel Barez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luis Gurule at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Luis Gurule" if Luis Gurule is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 5h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4bff…fc26` — 677,548.2 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 54,077.16 shares
- `0x21f3…35e3` — 13,177.571 shares
- `0xf438…9559` — 9,999.206 shares
- `0x7358…1d32` — 7,619.917 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xee00…cea1` — 199,999.99 shares
- `0x160d…5295` — 166,993.43 shares
- `0xdbad…9c95` — 150,000 shares
- `0xa710…23c4` — 107,751.844 shares
- `0xba38…e406` — 100,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T00:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T23:14:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 53¢ |
| Net change | -51.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-dan20-lui12-2026-05-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T23:14:53.463Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-dan20-lui12-2026-05-16.
```

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