# UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 14% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 04:14:03 GMT. 24h change -3.0pp, 24h volume $158.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-djo-bai1-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-djo-bai1-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T04:14:03.818Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **14¢** (14%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -3.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -7.0pp |
| 24h volume | $158.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $174.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $152.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Djorden Santos" if Djorden Santos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Baisangur Susurkaev at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Baisangur Susurkaev" if Baisangur Susurkaev is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 24h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa345…f54d` — 14,644 shares
- `0x2adb…3088` — 10,959 shares
- `0x0e55…01bb` — 9,883 shares
- `0x1c90…1b59` — 9,852 shares
- `0xc423…7839` — 9,364 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa710…23c4` — 136,073.41 shares
- `0xefac…c9a1` — 4,102.734 shares
- `0xfba6…1fca` — 1,500 shares
- `0x79f8…7bb0` — 704.11 shares
- `0x11b2…9baf` — 702.545 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T05:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T04:13:16.000Z |
| Range | 13¢ → 30¢ |
| Net change | -6.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-djo-bai1-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early Prelims) — 14% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T04:14:03.818Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-djo-bai1-2026-05-09.
```

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