# UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 39% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 05:45:20 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $196.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-doo-dan21-2026-05-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-doo-dan21-2026-05-16
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T05:45:20.645Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **39¢** (39%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -7.5pp |
| 24h volume | $196.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $234.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $141.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Dooho Choi" if Dooho Choi is officially declared the winner of the fight against Daniel Santos at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Daniel Santos" if Daniel Santos is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 22h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x27f7…44b0` — 26,265 shares
- `0x21f3…35e3` — 20,811.666 shares
- `0xf438…9559` — 15,000 shares
- `0x2876…c4b2` — 14,106.27 shares
- `0x5d47…d0a2` — 10,660.526 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x777d…5143` — 83,367.833 shares
- `0xba38…e406` — 27,771.171 shares
- `0x842a…7422` — 15,688.75 shares
- `0xd100…853d` — 11,904.762 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 9,999.773 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T06:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T05:45:05.000Z |
| Range | 38¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -7.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-doo-dan21-2026-05-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card) — 39% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T05:45:20.645Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-doo-dan21-2026-05-16.
```

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