# UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 57% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 20:03:26 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $303.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-gra-mat13-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-gra-mat13-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T20:03:26.921Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **57¢** (57%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.5pp |
| 24h volume | $303.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $421.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $91.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Grant Dawson" if Grant Dawson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Mateusz Rebecki" if Mateusz Rebecki is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 8h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4bff…fc26` — 193,213.55 shares
- `0x160d…5295` — 25,007.966 shares
- `0xa710…23c4` — 20,240.5 shares
- `0x6027…4320` — 16,336.37 shares
- `0xf2b9…7126` — 10,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xdbad…9c95` — 100,000 shares
- `0x777d…5143` — 82,447.55 shares
- `0x21f3…35e3` — 63,737.891 shares
- `0xa8e0…ad50` — 24,143.31 shares
- `0x8f8c…e275` — 10,791.5 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T21:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T20:01:07.000Z |
| Range | 55¢ → 63¢ |
| Net change | -0.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-gra-mat13-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) — 57% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T20:03:26.921Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-gra-mat13-2026-05-09.
```

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