# UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 23% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 03:23:08 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $246.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-jer-kin-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-jer-kin-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T03:23:08.688Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **23¢** (23%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -6.0pp |
| 24h volume | $246.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $285.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $131.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Jeremy Stephens" if Jeremy Stephens is officially declared the winner of the fight against King Green at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "King Green" if King Green is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 25h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x777d…5143` — 192,836.4 shares
- `0xf2b9…7126` — 19,999.952 shares
- `0x0940…3640` — 10,800 shares
- `0x01bf…070d` — 9,000 shares
- `0x1a47…235b` — 4,301.763 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa710…23c4` — 199,999.992 shares
- `0x8f8c…e275` — 23,831.734 shares
- `0x842a…7422` — 14,488.6 shares
- `0xe7a2…ae70` — 5,602.507 shares
- `0xd696…8a49` — 2,690.041 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T04:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T03:22:05.000Z |
| Range | 21¢ → 28¢ |
| Net change | -6.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-jer-kin-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) — 23% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T03:23:08.688Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-jer-kin-2026-05-09.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*