# UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 54% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 20:03:56 GMT. 24h change +15.5pp, 24h volume $401.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-joa3-sea4-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-joa3-sea4-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T20:03:56.980Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **54¢** (54%) |
| Δ 1h | -9.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +15.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +17.0pp |
| 24h volume | $401.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $452.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $46.6K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Joaquin Buckley" if Joaquin Buckley is officially declared the winner of the fight against Sean Brady at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Sean Brady" if Sean Brady is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 8h.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4m ago | `Legitimate-Brewer` | BUY | JOAQUIN BUCKLEY | $59.74 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x7d92…8676` — 156,058.869 shares
- `0x1e77…8c33` — 78,458.547 shares
- `0xd696…8a49` — 30,785.081 shares
- `0xfefb…4b5d` — 24,125.921 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 11,466.21 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xdbad…9c95` — 155,874.065 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 84,241.525 shares
- `0x5234…4c4f` — 48,398.416 shares
- `0x7966…6f94` — 12,599.83 shares
- `0x03ac…4f55` — 12,460.279 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T20:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T19:42:06.000Z |
| Range | 37¢ → 66¢ |
| Net change | +28.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-joa3-sea4-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) — 54% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T20:03:56.980Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-joa3-sea4-2026-05-09.
```

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