# UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight, Prelims)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 52% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 06:44:13 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $187.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-kha6-nik5-2026-05-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-kha6-nik5-2026-05-16
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T06:44:13.581Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **52¢** (52%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $187.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $200.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $98.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Khaos Williams" if Khaos Williams is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nikolay Veretennikov at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Nikolay Veretennikov" if Nikolay Veretennikov is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 21h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa710…23c4` — 49,999.985 shares
- `0xafba…e61b` — 42,434.86 shares
- `0xc65c…ea39` — 25,000 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 8,907.43 shares
- `0x4379…2e16` — 3,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x777d…5143` — 127,886.571 shares
- `0x8f8c…e275` — 8,768.548 shares
- `0xa2ef…f31e` — 2,358.324 shares
- `0xe361…5ff5` — 2,328.42 shares
- `0xd208…29e6` — 1,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 80 |
| Window start | 2026-05-12T23:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T06:43:07.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 53¢ |
| Net change | -1.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-kha6-nik5-2026-05-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight, Prelims) — 52% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T06:44:13.581Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-kha6-nik5-2026-05-16.
```

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