# UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 45% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 01:47:17 GMT. 24h change -24.0pp, 24h volume $864.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-mal3-jua6-2026-05-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-mal3-jua6-2026-05-16
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T01:47:17.910Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **45¢** (45%) |
| Δ 1h | -24.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -24.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -25.5pp |
| 24h volume | $864.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $940.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $2.1K |
| Spread | 7.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Malcolm Wellmaker" if Malcolm Wellmaker is officially declared the winner of the fight against Juan Diaz at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Juan Diaz" if Juan Diaz is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 55%): Expires in 2h. Spread is extremely wide.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4bff…fc26` — 650,600.238 shares
- `0xd6c9…396d` — 37,130.584 shares
- `0x4b1f…49e6` — 26,428.29 shares
- `0xa38a…821d` — 15,906.39 shares
- `0x5375…aeea` — 12,511 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xdbad…9c95` — 155,799.915 shares
- `0xafba…e61b` — 90,422.979 shares
- `0xfbf3…b218` — 79,750 shares
- `0x12ec…41ae` — 79,749.951 shares
- `0x39d3…9ef0` — 61,454.856 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T02:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T01:47:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 72¢ |
| Net change | -69.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-mal3-jua6-2026-05-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card) — 45% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T01:47:17.910Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-mal3-jua6-2026-05-16.
```

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