# UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 03:45:56 GMT. 24h change +25.4pp, 24h volume $227.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-mod-cedwar-2026-05-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-mod-cedwar-2026-05-16
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T03:45:56.703Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +25.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $227.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $230.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $387.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Modestas Bukauskas" if Modestas Bukauskas is officially declared the winner of the fight against Christian Edwards at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Christian Edwards" if Christian Edwards is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 0h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5c92…4e7c` — 21,669.36 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 16,457 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 12,048 shares
- `0x5aa9…febe` — 11,392.56 shares
- `0x20a8…f004` — 9,964.32 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x7a88…41cc` — 32,221.88 shares
- `0x39d3…9ef0` — 20,215.887 shares
- `0x6f8b…01aa` — 18,999.958 shares
- `0x2b15…9b08` — 12,228.119 shares
- `0xd81e…e3d0` — 5,155.16 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 77 |
| Window start | 2026-05-13T23:00:14.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T03:45:08.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-mod-cedwar-2026-05-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T03:45:56.703Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-mod-cedwar-2026-05-16.
```

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