# UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 04:23:09 GMT. 24h change -11.5pp, 24h volume $327.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-ozz-ate-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ozz-ate-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T04:23:09.622Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -11.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -14.9pp |
| 24h volume | $327.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $344.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $297.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Ozzy Diaz" if Ozzy Diaz is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ateba Gautier at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Ateba Gautier" if Ateba Gautier is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4bff…fc26` — 119,988.145 shares
- `0xe7e1…ec43` — 20,000 shares
- `0x9f2f…2ca8` — 15,129.156 shares
- `0x7760…21f0` — 7,969.65 shares
- `0x1a47…235b` — 7,389.956 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe593…cc7d` — 32,778.75 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 31,938.226 shares
- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 24,053 shares
- `0xba8c…e77d` — 23,135.76 shares
- `0x832d…d420` — 22,694.56 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T05:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T04:21:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 18¢ |
| Net change | -14.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-ozz-ate-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T04:23:09.622Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-ozz-ate-2026-05-09.
```

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