# Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 18% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 02:24:41 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $209.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-sea2-kha7-2026-05-09-chimaev-win-by-ko-tko
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-sea2-kha7-2026-05-09-chimaev-win-by-ko-tko
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T02:24:41.744Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **18¢** (18%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -31.0pp |
| 24h volume | $209.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $242.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $57.8K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Khamzat Chimaev defeats Sean Strickland at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
> 
> If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."
> 
> If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **divergence** (confidence 55%): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +1.5pp vs. 24h -1.0pp.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 2h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x8c80…02c3` — 140,173.69 shares
- `0xc198…6d2c` — 16,395.773 shares
- `0x306d…1916` — 5,452.657 shares
- `0x43d2…f5a7` — 4,756.905 shares
- `0x6430…d6e7` — 3,471.335 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbddf…c684` — 152,032.004 shares
- `0x7804…7025` — 11,433.622 shares
- `0xd34b…0004` — 10,855.803 shares
- `0x0336…4bb0` — 7,647.795 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 3,845.212 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T03:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T02:23:05.000Z |
| Range | 17¢ → 53¢ |
| Net change | -32.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-sea2-kha7-2026-05-09-chimaev-win-by-ko-tko` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? — 18% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T02:24:41.744Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-sea2-kha7-2026-05-09-chimaev-win-by-ko-tko.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*