# UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 61% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 02:22:52 GMT. 24h change +1.0pp, 24h volume $593.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-tat1-jos49-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-tat1-jos49-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T02:22:52.058Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **61¢** (61%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -1.0pp |
| 24h volume | $593.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $729.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $314.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Tatsuro Taira" if Tatsuro Taira is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joshua Van at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Joshua Van" if Joshua Van is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 2h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4bff…fc26` — 272,835.045 shares
- `0xdbad…9c95` — 80,197.89 shares
- `0xe7e1…ec43` — 51,638.789 shares
- `0x8982…59fb` — 16,393.443 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 14,196.881 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xd81e…e3d0` — 87,593.77 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 60,595.85 shares
- `0xad2b…f091` — 59,303.54 shares
- `0x1b62…db9c` — 50,000 shares
- `0x777d…5143` — 45,983.857 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T03:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T02:22:05.000Z |
| Range | 56¢ → 63¢ |
| Net change | -2.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-tat1-jos49-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) — 61% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T02:22:52.058Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-tat1-jos49-2026-05-09.
```

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