# UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 00:57:03 GMT. 24h change +37.5pp, 24h volume $1.1M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-tom17-aminev-2026-05-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-tom17-aminev-2026-05-16
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T00:57:03.739Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +37.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.1M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $431.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Tommy Gantt" if Tommy Gantt is officially declared the winner of the fight against Artur Minev at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Artur Minev" if Artur Minev is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 3h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x751a…9ea1` — 185,509.03 shares
- `0xa49b…4c40` — 90,000 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 21,198 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 13,078 shares
- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 12,220 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfbf3…b218` — 112,954.668 shares
- `0x39d3…9ef0` — 73,028.944 shares
- `0x4d6e…5cfd` — 31,328.186 shares
- `0xc974…b33b` — 30,887.99 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 29,999.989 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 73 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T00:00:21.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T00:56:06.000Z |
| Range | 51¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +31.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-tom17-aminev-2026-05-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T00:57:03.739Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-tom17-aminev-2026-05-16.
```

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