# UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 01:47:17 GMT. 24h change -38.5pp, 24h volume $376.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-tuc1-iva6-2026-05-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-tuc1-iva6-2026-05-16
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T01:47:17.070Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -38.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -41.9pp |
| 24h volume | $376.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $490.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $248.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Tuco Tokkos" if Tuco Tokkos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ivan Erslan at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Ivan Erslan" if Ivan Erslan is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1117…3532` — 99,999.927 shares
- `0xa710…23c4` — 49,999.809 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 40,000 shares
- `0x412f…30fa` — 16,500.29 shares
- `0xd218…b5c9` — 12,023.53 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4bff…fc26` — 112,210.51 shares
- `0x8f8c…e275` — 60,281.481 shares
- `0xba8c…e77d` — 34,791.11 shares
- `0x777d…5143` — 27,814.97 shares
- `0x6b12…d642` — 18,499.97 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T02:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T01:47:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 44¢ |
| Net change | -41.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-tuc1-iva6-2026-05-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T01:47:17.070Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-tuc1-iva6-2026-05-16.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*