# Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 37% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 09:22:53 GMT. 24h change +6.0pp, 24h volume $138.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T09:22:53.615Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **37¢** (37%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +6.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +10.5pp |
| 24h volume | $138.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $388.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $62.0K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes”  if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 
> 
> Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
> 
> Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
> 
> The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. 
> 
> The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 
> 

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xb2c4…43e8` — 24,208.515 shares
- `0xf481…0325` — 20,408.453 shares
- `0xa65c…7997` — 11,798.579 shares
- `0x52f9…e1c7` — 7,930.759 shares
- `0x7c3d…5c6b` — 4,486.042 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x11fc…dc48` — 32,092.78 shares
- `0xd44e…67e2` — 18,507.807 shares
- `0xda3f…c282` — 9,999.981 shares
- `0x2525…b919` — 4,128.891 shares
- `0x24c8…23e1` — 3,370.015 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T10:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T09:22:05.000Z |
| Range | 24¢ → 40¢ |
| Net change | +10.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? — 37% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T09:22:53.615Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027.
```

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