# US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 9% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 19:45:40 GMT. 24h change -53.0pp, 24h volume $323.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-may-25
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-may-25
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** TBD
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T19:45:40.825Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **9¢** (9%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -53.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $323.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $323.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $44.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** TBD

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
> 
> A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:
> 
> 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.
> 
> 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.
> 
> Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.
> 
> The following would qualify:
> - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”
> - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”
> - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”
> - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.
> 
> The following would not qualify:
> - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.
> - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached
> - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.
> 
> An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
> 
> This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. 

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 53.0pp in 24h with 7.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x53e5…6177` — 29,605.47 shares
- `0x162f…798d` — 14,844.144 shares
- `0x68c2…1711` — 9,342.183 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 8,087.993 shares
- `0x6872…876f` — 8,027.287 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 15,588.008 shares
- `0x5188…c804` — 12,343.85 shares
- `0x6d9f…9790` — 10,000 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 9,264.699 shares
- `0xfd2b…8e50` — 6,690.456 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 25 |
| Window start | 2026-05-23T20:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T19:44:04.000Z |
| Range | 9¢ → 89¢ |
| Net change | -44.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-may-25` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? — 9% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T19:45:40.825Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-may-25.
```

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