# US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 71% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 21:53:02 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $54.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-may-26
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-may-26
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** TBD
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T21:53:02.710Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **71¢** (71%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $54.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $54.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $41.5K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** TBD

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
> 
> A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:
> 
> 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.
> 
> 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.
> 
> Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.
> 
> The following would qualify:
> - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”
> - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”
> - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”
> - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.
> 
> The following would not qualify:
> - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.
> - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached
> - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.
> 
> An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
> 
> This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. 

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x921f…3d70` — 29,384.988 shares
- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 25,703.514 shares
- `0xf797…0bf2` — 15,122.668 shares
- `0xecaa…77a9` — 12,231.667 shares
- `0x53e5…6177` — 8,309.316 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5188…c804` — 36,855.65 shares
- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 33,905.123 shares
- `0xfc2f…10c7` — 28,224.904 shares
- `0xd52b…5c72` — 18,701.427 shares
- `0x6d9f…9790` — 10,001.66 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 11 |
| Window start | 2026-05-23T20:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T05:11:05.000Z |
| Range | 61¢ → 90¢ |
| Net change | +8.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-may-26` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? — 71% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T21:53:02.710Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-may-26.
```

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