# US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? > Polymarket binary prediction market. 55% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 18:33:27 GMT. 24h change +15.5pp, 24h volume $473.8K. **Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-may-31-665 **Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-may-31-665 **Category:** Geopolitics **Resolves by:** TBD **Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T18:33:27.921Z ## Live snapshot | Metric | Value | |---|---| | YES probability | **55¢** (55%) | | Δ 1h | +10.5pp | | Δ 24h | +15.5pp | | Δ 1w | +0.0pp | | 24h volume | $473.8K | | Lifetime volume | $708.2K | | Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $50.0K | | Spread | 2.00pp | ## Resolution **Resolves by:** TBD **Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle. ### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket) > This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". > > If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. > > A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: > > 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. > > 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. > > Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. > > The following would qualify: > - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” > - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” > - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” > - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. > > The following would not qualify: > - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. > - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached > - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. > > An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. > > This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. ## Active signals Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome. - **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 15.5pp in 24h with 9.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. ## Top holders **Top YES holders** - `0xe541…d45d` — 67,000 shares - `0xc884…e17e` — 35,079.714 shares - `0x68c2…1711` — 19,999.517 shares - `0x5f45…a77a` — 19,585.491 shares - `0x53e5…6177` — 17,342.715 shares **Top NO holders** - `0xbaa2…2c73` — 140,860.906 shares - `0xecaa…77a9` — 22,649.36 shares - `0x0562…9d66` — 21,999.994 shares - `0x6d9f…9790` — 20,118.643 shares - `0xc8ab…6418` — 17,084.207 shares ## 7-day price-history summary | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Sample count | 48 | | Window start | 2026-05-23T20:00:07.000Z | | Window end | 2026-05-25T18:01:05.000Z | | Range | 28¢ → 92¢ | | Net change | -7.0pp | Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-may-31-665` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data. ## Cite this ``` Orrery. "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? — 55% on Polymarket." Retrieved 2026-05-25T18:33:27.921Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-may-31-665. ``` --- *Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See .*