# US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 53% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 17:50:21 GMT. 24h change -6.0pp, 24h volume $208.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T17:50:21.077Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **53¢** (53%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -6.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +2.5pp |
| 24h volume | $208.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $115.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
> 
> Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x3ad1…b4c5` — 23,282.838 shares
- `0x7e31…454d` — 15,100.129 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 13,712.587 shares
- `0x9952…9cba` — 11,879.99 shares
- `0x1681…b1c7` — 9,999.991 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5739…5f1a` — 34,298.337 shares
- `0xdbad…9c95` — 20,059.22 shares
- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 18,235.722 shares
- `0x9ca1…13b5` — 13,783.889 shares
- `0x7c3d…5c6b` — 12,131.879 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T18:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T17:49:04.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 73¢ |
| Net change | +2.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? — 53% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T17:50:21.077Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027.
```

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