# US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 30% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 07:53:59 GMT. 24h change +5.0pp, 24h volume $69.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T07:53:59.359Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **30¢** (30%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +5.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +3.0pp |
| 24h volume | $69.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $2.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $37.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
> 
> Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x162f…798d` — 44,172.124 shares
- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 19,450.405 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 19,371.888 shares
- `0x0042…321e` — 17,037.31 shares
- `0x4712…29dd` — 17,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5739…5f1a` — 54,299.461 shares
- `0xb8ee…9e81` — 31,173.974 shares
- `0xdbad…9c95` — 26,185.6 shares
- `0x8797…bbbe` — 20,659.987 shares
- `0xa1d8…a786` — 19,181.948 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-17T08:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T07:53:03.000Z |
| Range | 19¢ → 49¢ |
| Net change | +19.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? — 30% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T07:53:59.359Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30.
```

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