# US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 18% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 19:53:18 GMT. 24h change +9.3pp, 24h volume $238.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-may-31-974
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-may-31-974
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T19:53:18.085Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **18¢** (18%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +9.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +7.2pp |
| 24h volume | $238.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $44.3K |
| Spread | 2.50pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
> 
> Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 92%): Probability moved up 9.3pp in 24h with 5.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 96,131.997 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 68,219.325 shares
- `0x162f…798d` — 58,653.979 shares
- `0x4478…02a4` — 35,000.008 shares
- `0x24c8…23e1` — 27,982.045 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa1d8…a786` — 60,494.099 shares
- `0x334b…d971` — 59,253.564 shares
- `0xf9c1…39e2` — 51,458.475 shares
- `0xcbbc…ea5a` — 28,732.005 shares
- `0x9c98…f4f4` — 27,781.088 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T19:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T18:15:04.000Z |
| Range | 4¢ → 23¢ |
| Net change | +12.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-may-31-974` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? — 18% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T19:53:18.085Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-may-31-974.
```

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