# US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 10% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:05:19 GMT. 24h change +2.0pp, 24h volume $538.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-may-31-396
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-may-31-396
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:05:19.499Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **10¢** (10%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +1.0pp |
| 24h volume | $538.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $8.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $387.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
> 
> Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
> 
> A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0a85…fe9d` — 1,142,332.758 shares
- `0xa41e…30f9` — 382,432.083 shares
- `0x6139…6b7a` — 289,490.975 shares
- `0x1e1f…c855` — 180,460.43 shares
- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 116,915.901 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 230,869.118 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 188,776.719 shares
- `0x7ea7…79ac` — 184,286.66 shares
- `0x7523…4c4c` — 150,000 shares
- `0x614d…1546` — 112,000.073 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:03:06.000Z |
| Range | 6¢ → 10¢ |
| Net change | +1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-may-31-396` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? — 10% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:05:19.499Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-may-31-396.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*