# US strike on Colombia by December 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 20% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 19:12:14 GMT. 24h change +0.5pp, 24h volume $529.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-strike-on-colombia-by-december-31
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-colombia-by-december-31
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** Jan 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T19:12:14.184Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **20¢** (20%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +3.0pp |
| 24h volume | $529.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $963.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $11.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jan 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
> 
> A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
> 
> Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
> 
> Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
> 
> Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
> 
> This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc3c3…eec8` — 9,859.738 shares
- `0x80a0…5708` — 4,681.523 shares
- `0x6139…6b7a` — 1,824.953 shares
- `0xae7c…487e` — 1,623.618 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 1,551.225 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4cb5…b536` — 15,112.799 shares
- `0xf256…9728` — 6,017.23 shares
- `0x2796…b4f0` — 1,750.006 shares
- `0xf5ee…5d9c` — 1,724.51 shares
- `0x2d61…1fa7` — 1,600 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T20:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T19:12:06.000Z |
| Range | 17¢ → 20¢ |
| Net change | +3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-strike-on-colombia-by-december-31` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US strike on Colombia by December 31? — 20% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T19:12:14.184Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-strike-on-colombia-by-december-31.
```

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