# US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 63% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 15:23:25 GMT. 24h change -11.5pp, 24h volume $221.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T15:23:25.319Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **63¢** (63%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -11.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -2.5pp |
| 24h volume | $221.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $955.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $141.7K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. 
> 
> Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
> 
> The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
> 
> The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 90%): Probability moved down 11.5pp in 24h with 1.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9648…6825` — 197,582.28 shares
- `0x02d8…0c91` — 97,881.304 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 22,776.906 shares
- `0x15f7…a018` — 16,290.56 shares
- `0x5f17…519e` — 14,133.087 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 89,220.849 shares
- `0xfc2f…10c7` — 80,815.688 shares
- `0xa022…77f8` — 73,208.129 shares
- `0x49eb…cf37` — 70,780.524 shares
- `0x5969…5bed` — 22,054.964 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T16:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T15:22:04.000Z |
| Range | 56¢ → 81¢ |
| Net change | -2.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? — 63% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T15:23:25.319Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*