# US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 17% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 07:00:32 GMT. 24h change -8.0pp, 24h volume $94.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-15-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-15-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T07:00:32.700Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **17¢** (17%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -8.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -35.0pp |
| 24h volume | $94.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $202.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. 
> 
> Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
> 
> The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
> 
> The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 69%): Probability moved down 8.0pp in 24h with 0.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9648…6825` — 101,884.425 shares
- `0xe7cb…d447` — 29,999.991 shares
- `0x53e5…6177` — 14,249.99 shares
- `0x5f17…519e` — 13,069.308 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 10,520.47 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xecaa…77a9` — 28,251.78 shares
- `0xfc2f…10c7` — 15,115.05 shares
- `0x5739…5f1a` — 14,849.974 shares
- `0xbf4d…33ed` — 14,611.596 shares
- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 10,609.36 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T07:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T06:52:05.000Z |
| Range | 17¢ → 61¢ |
| Net change | -44.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-15-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? — 17% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T07:00:32.700Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-15-2026.
```

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