# US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 25% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 20 May 2026 20:52:14 GMT. 24h change +13.0pp, 24h volume $274.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026-283-616
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026-283-616
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-20T20:52:14.020Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **25¢** (25%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +13.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $274.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $2.7M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $51.4K |
| Spread | 3.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. 
> 
> Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
> 
> The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
> 
> The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 13.0pp in 24h with 5.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9648…6825` — 366,906.797 shares
- `0x02d8…0c91` — 60,040.198 shares
- `0x3c0c…fbb7` — 56,103.808 shares
- `0xcf19…6402` — 26,899.98 shares
- `0xb911…8bb6` — 26,579.51 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xeed5…1a33` — 335,191.73 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 59,898.219 shares
- `0xecaa…77a9` — 53,208.579 shares
- `0xe738…df65` — 27,499.856 shares
- `0x4528…99e2` — 16,607.971 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-13T18:00:14.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T17:13:21.000Z |
| Range | 11¢ → 28¢ |
| Net change | -1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026-283-616` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? — 25% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-20T20:52:14.020Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026-283-616.
```

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