# US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 44% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 02:41:22 GMT. 24h change +5.0pp, 24h volume $133.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T02:41:22.423Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **44¢** (44%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +5.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $133.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $328.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $54.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. 
> 
> Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
> 
> The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
> 
> The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9648…6825` — 48,289.961 shares
- `0x2525…b919` — 15,316.915 shares
- `0x35bb…009b` — 8,293.773 shares
- `0x8b40…8ab4` — 8,194.623 shares
- `0x1681…b1c7` — 6,844.205 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xc8ab…6418` — 16,381.956 shares
- `0x6d9f…9790` — 13,356.235 shares
- `0xfc2f…10c7` — 11,786.583 shares
- `0x6a01…7c0a` — 9,003.202 shares
- `0xa022…77f8` — 5,239.08 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 127 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T20:00:20.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T02:40:04.000Z |
| Range | 37¢ → 65¢ |
| Net change | -12.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? — 44% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T02:41:22.423Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*