# US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 2% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:07:45 GMT. 24h change -5.9pp, 24h volume $393.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-5-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-5-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:07:45.502Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **2¢** (2%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -5.9pp |
| Δ 1w | -36.6pp |
| 24h volume | $393.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.9M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $263.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. 
> 
> Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
> 
> The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
> 
> The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 51h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9648…6825` — 134,998.696 shares
- `0xa771…42d1` — 79,451.503 shares
- `0xa022…77f8` — 52,684.807 shares
- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 44,027.57 shares
- `0x6139…6b7a` — 26,238.464 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xf396…ed0d` — 90,073.612 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 64,774.797 shares
- `0x10fc…9606` — 19,999.531 shares
- `0x8c57…f939` — 16,048.854 shares
- `0xf9c1…39e2` — 15,273.07 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:20.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:07:05.000Z |
| Range | 2¢ → 37¢ |
| Net change | -32.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-5-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? — 2% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:07:45.502Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-5-2026.
```

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