# US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 16% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 02:02:50 GMT. 24h change +7.0pp, 24h volume $169.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-before-trump-visits-china
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-before-trump-visits-china
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T02:02:50.031Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **16¢** (16%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +7.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $169.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $171.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $44.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal before Donald Trump visits China. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> If neither a qualifying peace deal nor a Trump visit to China occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
> 
> A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
> 
> - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
> 
> - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
> 
> The primary resolution source for whether a peace deal is achieved will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
> 
> For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
> 
> The primary resolution source for Trump visiting China will be official information from government of the United States of America and official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
> 

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9d84…1344` — 40,887.087 shares
- `0xfc2f…10c7` — 4,099.979 shares
- `0x2470…22e5` — 3,000 shares
- `0xefde…783d` — 2,712.808 shares
- `0x0475…ed7a` — 1,635.714 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x74bf…2a6e` — 15,929.923 shares
- `0xe54d…fea1` — 11,111 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 6,485.913 shares
- `0x9d73…216b` — 6,000 shares
- `0xbf01…bbf7` — 3,890.42 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 27 |
| Window start | 2026-05-06T01:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T02:02:04.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 35¢ |
| Net change | -19.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-before-trump-visits-china` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? — 16% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T02:02:50.031Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-before-trump-visits-china.
```

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