# US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 5% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:07:44 GMT. 24h change -5.0pp, 24h volume $272.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-15-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-15-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:07:44.813Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **5¢** (5%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -5.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $272.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.9M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $771.9K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 
> 
> A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
> 
> A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
> 
> - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
> 
> - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 57%): Probability moved down 5.0pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 119,578.31 shares
- `0xfc2f…10c7` — 105,036.822 shares
- `0x4478…02a4` — 100,000.001 shares
- `0x162f…798d` — 96,049.464 shares
- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 70,567.482 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xf9c1…39e2` — 451,407.675 shares
- `0x9cda…1397` — 55,278.965 shares
- `0x3a8a…7699` — 49,999.975 shares
- `0x9648…6825` — 39,912.526 shares
- `0xf155…76bd` — 37,580.067 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 123 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T19:00:18.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:06:04.000Z |
| Range | 5¢ → 17¢ |
| Net change | -10.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-15-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? — 5% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:07:44.813Z from https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-15-2026.
```

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