# Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 11:29:28 GMT. 24h change -0.1pp, 24h volume $211.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-10-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-10-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026
**Category:** Macro
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T11:29:28.549Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $211.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $2.7M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $131.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
> 
> Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
> 
> For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
> 
> This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
> 
> Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x78dc…b46d` — 63,827.601 shares
- `0xf31a…8fbc` — 53,333.32 shares
- `0xb9cf…75d1` — 45,000.03 shares
- `0x20a3…29db` — 37,267.128 shares
- `0x0111…60f7` — 24,318.457 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 421,368.084 shares
- `0xdf5f…6286` — 1,515.23 shares
- `0x0cea…b2db` — 401.04 shares
- `0x68e7…45ec` — 377.14 shares
- `0x1e79…37bc` — 210 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T12:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T11:28:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 0¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-10-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T11:29:28.549Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-10-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026.
```

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