# Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 23:16:20 GMT. 24h change +0.8pp, 24h volume $183.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-100-124-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-april-27-may-3
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-100-124-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-april-27-may-3
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T23:16:20.615Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -7.7pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.8pp |
| Δ 1w | -5.6pp |
| 24h volume | $183.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $192.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $8.7K |
| Spread | 0.60pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive.
> 
> Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
> 
> This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
> 
> Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xcd71…d127` — 12,176.793 shares
- `0x30f9…fbfc` — 5,284.878 shares
- `0xe1b3…1426` — 5,178.249 shares
- `0x1f2a…58af` — 5,000 shares
- `0xeb63…9097` — 2,540 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 33,568.49 shares
- `0x0026…aef7` — 11,956.601 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 2,566.15 shares
- `0x31a5…b589` — 2,160 shares
- `0x2f63…6643` — 2,112.741 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T00:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T23:16:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | -4.6pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-100-124-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-april-27-may-3` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T23:16:20.615Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-100-124-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-april-27-may-3.
```

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