# Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 9% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 20:30:43 GMT. 24h change +8.5pp, 24h volume $399.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-40-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-april-30
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-40-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-april-30
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Apr 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T20:30:43.718Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **9¢** (9%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +8.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +4.9pp |
| 24h volume | $399.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $689.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $12.7K |
| Spread | 3.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Apr 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
> 
> This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
> 
> Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfc2f…10c7` — 18,784.635 shares
- `0xa510…1f80` — 17,538.022 shares
- `0x6e9a…f3bb` — 11,880.314 shares
- `0x6bab…1292` — 9,108.683 shares
- `0xb4c0…92d8` — 8,849.716 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xc8ab…6418` — 36,289.7 shares
- `0x8c76…06ac` — 10,160.78 shares
- `0xf9c1…39e2` — 9,742.411 shares
- `0x9aeb…2729` — 9,559.32 shares
- `0xe738…df65` — 7,983.334 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T21:00:15.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T20:29:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 98¢ |
| Net change | +5.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-40-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-april-30` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? — 9% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T20:30:43.718Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-40-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-april-30.
```

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