# Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 09:15:05 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $205.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-7-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-7-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026
**Category:** Macro
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T09:15:05.190Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.2pp |
| 24h volume | $205.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $86.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
> 
> Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
> 
> For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
> 
> This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
> 
> Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xb9cf…75d1` — 45,000.848 shares
- `0xe086…cd36` — 43,002.43 shares
- `0x51fd…4272` — 39,912.559 shares
- `0x0111…60f7` — 38,415.12 shares
- `0xaee6…16f1` — 37,016.531 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 443,011.201 shares
- `0x9fce…886d` — 160 shares
- `0x1584…71b6` — 112.11 shares
- `0x40da…3cca` — 50.15 shares
- `0xa3ad…6866` — 20.54 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T10:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T09:14:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | -0.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-7-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T09:15:05.190Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-7-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026.
```

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