# Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:05:57 GMT. 24h change +0.2pp, 24h volume $181.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-a-new-mai-model-be-released-by-april-30-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-new-mai-model-be-released-by-april-30-2026
**Category:** AI
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:05:57.239Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.2pp |
| Δ 1w | +79.5pp |
| 24h volume | $181.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $373.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $333.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `disputed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `disputed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases any new MAI model that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
> 
> A “new MAI model” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family, including new base models or successors within that family.
> 
> Any releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar variants will count for this market.
> 
> Products labeled as outside of the MAI family will NOT qualify.
> 
> For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
> 
> The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (microsoft.ai), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x35bb…009b` — 71,254.09 shares
- `0x2785…70ae` — 46,667.88 shares
- `0x9507…7b04` — 17,957.32 shares
- `0x9a3f…914a` — 14,000 shares
- `0x96b5…f5e7` — 10,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5e71…ba82` — 107,957.875 shares
- `0x2779…239a` — 26,165.022 shares
- `0x2068…79af` — 10,000 shares
- `0xb36d…0e7e` — 9,000 shares
- `0x2fa7…bb0f` — 5,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:04:08.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +72.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-a-new-mai-model-be-released-by-april-30-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:05:57.239Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-a-new-mai-model-be-released-by-april-30-2026.
```

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