# Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:08:33 GMT. 24h change +0.4pp, 24h volume $345.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-a-us-anti-cartel-operation-outside-of-the-united-states-occur-by-april-30-2026-822-284-191
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-us-anti-cartel-operation-outside-of-the-united-states-occur-by-april-30-2026-822-284-191
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** Apr 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:08:33.487Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +85.4pp |
| 24h volume | $345.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $624.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $194.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `disputed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Apr 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `disputed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
> 
> Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 75%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x92a6…8b84` — 78,148.504 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 64,303.413 shares
- `0x9e80…f694` — 26,935.55 shares
- `0x5602…1480` — 26,459.69 shares
- `0x614d…1546` — 24,236.94 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5e71…ba82` — 100,000 shares
- `0x22f4…8eda` — 52,825 shares
- `0x28e3…4511` — 11,590.365 shares
- `0x4eb7…ae9b` — 10,532.003 shares
- `0x2220…5db4` — 10,316.595 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:08:04.000Z |
| Range | 9¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +85.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-a-us-anti-cartel-operation-outside-of-the-united-states-occur-by-april-30-2026-822-284-191` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:08:33.487Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-a-us-anti-cartel-operation-outside-of-the-united-states-occur-by-april-30-2026-822-284-191.
```

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