# Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 21:23:31 GMT. 24h change +28.0pp, 24h volume $195.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-arsenal-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-arsenal-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T21:23:31.223Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +12.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +28.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +35.4pp |
| 24h volume | $195.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $316.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $257.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 UEFA Champions League final. 
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If the 2026 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Champions League final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 79%): Probability moved up 28.0pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 27h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xea2b…1fc6` — 33,553.101 shares
- `0xfea3…d227` — 25,434.742 shares
- `0xd568…a35a` — 24,641.897 shares
- `0x9a8c…ba13` — 15,200.222 shares
- `0x9106…afcb` — 14,220.619 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xcf98…6e0a` — 125,288.698 shares
- `0x53ec…df91` — 14,265.119 shares
- `0xf892…7f58` — 9,870.257 shares
- `0x44c4…09cb` — 7,051.976 shares
- `0x46ee…ae61` — 5,444.004 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T22:00:20.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T21:22:03.000Z |
| Range | 65¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +35.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-arsenal-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T21:23:31.223Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-arsenal-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*