# Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 32% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 19:21:54 GMT. 24h change +1.0pp, 24h volume $311.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-arsenal-win-the-202526-champions-league
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-arsenal-win-the-202526-champions-league
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T19:21:54.937Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **32¢** (32%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +5.0pp |
| 24h volume | $311.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $6.6M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $78.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa136…97de` — 1,096,833.587 shares
- `0xee00…cea1` — 179,177.401 shares
- `0x1686…c3f9` — 143,737.368 shares
- `0xd71e…79a1` — 120,991.271 shares
- `0x62a1…f032` — 69,999.948 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 1,875,705.338 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 199,999.993 shares
- `0x0b95…4ce8` — 70,254.445 shares
- `0x7d8c…0b5c` — 56,800 shares
- `0xe52c…6924` — 39,480 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T20:00:20.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T19:20:06.000Z |
| Range | 26¢ → 33¢ |
| Net change | +5.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-arsenal-win-the-202526-champions-league` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? — 32% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T19:21:54.937Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-arsenal-win-the-202526-champions-league.
```

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