# Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 81% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 04:45:13 GMT. 24h change +19.0pp, 24h volume $160.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-arsenal-win-the-202526-english-premier-league
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-arsenal-win-the-202526-english-premier-league
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T04:45:13.296Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **81¢** (81%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +19.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +30.0pp |
| 24h volume | $160.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $11.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $99.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 English Premier League.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 English Premier League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 90%): Probability moved up 19.0pp in 24h with 1.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0d16…d24d` — 1,000,000.009 shares
- `0xd836…ea78` — 272,927.909 shares
- `0x0b9c…7e44` — 232,644.742 shares
- `0x15c8…d2d0` — 164,014.16 shares
- `0x4103…a4e7` — 138,870.938 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,896,415.624 shares
- `0xff48…b0ec` — 166,505.5 shares
- `0x2ad5…d434` — 69,999.717 shares
- `0xf655…7ea4` — 35,000.004 shares
- `0xd604…cb5f` — 24,697.748 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T05:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T04:44:07.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 84¢ |
| Net change | +29.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-arsenal-win-the-202526-english-premier-league` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — 81% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T04:45:13.296Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-arsenal-win-the-202526-english-premier-league.
```

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