# Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 20 May 2026 22:22:34 GMT. 24h change +26.5pp, 24h volume $220.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-aston-villa-win-the-2025-26-uefa-europa-league
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-aston-villa-win-the-2025-26-uefa-europa-league
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 24, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-20T22:22:34.604Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +26.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +27.5pp |
| 24h volume | $220.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $805.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $208.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 24, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Europa League (https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 83%): Probability moved up 26.5pp in 24h with 1.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xb85a…4972` — 43,429.08 shares
- `0x6c74…bd4e` — 18,850.009 shares
- `0xfd97…0ec5` — 10,122.22 shares
- `0xb6bf…ec1a` — 9,600 shares
- `0x9f2f…2ca8` — 8,224.81 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 70,240.559 shares
- `0xe542…0a37` — 27,617.948 shares
- `0x9106…afcb` — 22,008.031 shares
- `0x2d73…044b` — 16,000 shares
- `0x8d79…1c29` — 12,107.574 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-13T21:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T20:58:05.000Z |
| Range | 72¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +27.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-aston-villa-win-the-2025-26-uefa-europa-league` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-20T22:22:34.604Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-aston-villa-win-the-2025-26-uefa-europa-league.
```

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