# Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 21:22:43 GMT. 24h change -28.0pp, 24h volume $171.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-atleti-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-atleti-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T21:22:43.136Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -14.9pp |
| Δ 24h | -28.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -36.4pp |
| 24h volume | $171.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $357.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $203.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 UEFA Champions League final. 
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If the 2026 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Champions League final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 81%): Probability moved down 28.0pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 27h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe907…cff6` — 54,717.692 shares
- `0xcf98…6e0a` — 41,395.435 shares
- `0x1937…4b67` — 13,123.003 shares
- `0xf892…7f58` — 9,999.992 shares
- `0x89ce…2edf` — 6,004.987 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9106…afcb` — 68,999.906 shares
- `0xfea3…d227` — 51,548.267 shares
- `0x1d2e…896d` — 13,882.347 shares
- `0x5c3a…020b` — 13,062.137 shares
- `0x46ee…ae61` — 11,242.426 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T22:00:21.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T21:21:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 37¢ |
| Net change | -36.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-atleti-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T21:22:43.136Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-atleti-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final.
```

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