# Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 21:23:31 GMT. 24h change -8.3pp, 24h volume $265.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-atletico-madrid-win-the-202526-champions-league
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-atletico-madrid-win-the-202526-champions-league
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T21:23:31.402Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -6.2pp |
| Δ 24h | -8.3pp |
| Δ 1w | -11.3pp |
| 24h volume | $265.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $24.7M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $677.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 69%): Probability moved down 8.3pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xee00…cea1` — 218,591.732 shares
- `0x274c…da86` — 169,709.356 shares
- `0x1fca…9d33` — 56,598.628 shares
- `0x3811…8f61` — 55,649.904 shares
- `0x3a8a…7699` — 55,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 1,882,806.852 shares
- `0x12da…e023` — 25,322.42 shares
- `0x5969…5bed` — 11,499.432 shares
- `0x606d…1aaf` — 10,649.925 shares
- `0xfd97…0ec5` — 8,144.33 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T22:00:21.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T21:22:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 11¢ |
| Net change | -11.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-atletico-madrid-win-the-202526-champions-league` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T21:23:31.402Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-atletico-madrid-win-the-202526-champions-league.
```

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