# Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 53% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 19:05:27 GMT. 24h change +2.0pp, 24h volume $250.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-bayern-mnchen-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-bayern-mnchen-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T19:05:27.915Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **53¢** (53%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +1.0pp |
| 24h volume | $250.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $418.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $118.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 UEFA Champions League final. 
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If the 2026 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Champions League final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 5h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xff6e…18ec` — 80,705.159 shares
- `0x93fb…3e4a` — 28,152.67 shares
- `0x9770…0ff5` — 20,000 shares
- `0x1467…4372` — 19,313.994 shares
- `0x227e…e118` — 15,876.658 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5fd8…ce32` — 52,068.515 shares
- `0xfea3…d227` — 26,399.7 shares
- `0xe405…c67e` — 22,178.221 shares
- `0x9106…afcb` — 20,577.673 shares
- `0x53ec…df91` — 18,483.51 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T20:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T19:04:11.000Z |
| Range | 49¢ → 56¢ |
| Net change | +4.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-bayern-mnchen-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? — 53% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T19:05:27.915Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-bayern-mnchen-reach-the-uefa-champions-league-final.
```

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