# Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 7% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 20:31:48 GMT. 24h change -24.0pp, 24h volume $419.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-bayern-munich-win-the-202526-champions-league
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-bayern-munich-win-the-202526-champions-league
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T20:31:48.445Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **7¢** (7%) |
| Δ 1h | -9.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -24.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -24.5pp |
| 24h volume | $419.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $6.6M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $89.2K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
> 
> If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 24.0pp in 24h with 4.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xee67…ef38` — 246,500.065 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 142,125.6 shares
- `0xb619…5068` — 98,999.599 shares
- `0x893a…29dc` — 80,678.257 shares
- `0x606d…1aaf` — 53,882.865 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 1,918,243.305 shares
- `0xdfda…4fe6` — 24,899.851 shares
- `0x1461…30a1` — 18,200.029 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 13,705.238 shares
- `0xa3a3…c2f9` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T21:00:23.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T20:31:23.000Z |
| Range | 4¢ → 33¢ |
| Net change | -27.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-bayern-munich-win-the-202526-champions-league` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? — 7% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T20:31:48.445Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-bayern-munich-win-the-202526-champions-league.
```

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