# Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 23:16:20 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $735.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-beto-orourke-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-beto-orourke-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T23:16:20.069Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $735.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $40.0M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.7M |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5d18…4972` — 918,911.636 shares
- `0xc21e…0215` — 503,997.896 shares
- `0x801b…e036` — 322,663.343 shares
- `0xf1f9…1245` — 113,000 shares
- `0x2663…ed1f` — 79,407.793 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,774,177.237 shares
- `0x5b90…6508` — 573.441 shares
- `0x2bb2…dfc6` — 567.006 shares
- `0x1d4a…428d` — 548.004 shares
- `0x5258…ce5b` — 503.018 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T23:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T22:06:05.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-beto-orourke-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T23:16:20.069Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-beto-orourke-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination.
```

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