# Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 27% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 11:35:23 GMT. 24h change +19.0pp, 24h volume $299.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-70k-in-may-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-70k-in-may-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T11:35:23.173Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **27¢** (27%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +19.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +5.0pp |
| 24h volume | $299.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $2.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $50.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 19.0pp in 24h with 6.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf705…3ca7` — 94,900.42 shares
- `0xb50c…215b` — 51,094.23 shares
- `0xde9f…b8f7` — 45,605.615 shares
- `0xc3c3…eec8` — 41,958.625 shares
- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 40,517.227 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 162,212.943 shares
- `0xf2f6…5817` — 45,469.468 shares
- `0x430f…5947` — 35,335.944 shares
- `0xa701…47cd` — 34,944.074 shares
- `0xc823…a910` — 26,509.701 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T11:00:22.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T10:58:04.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 27¢ |
| Net change | +5.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-bitcoin-dip-to-70k-in-may-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? — 27% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T11:35:23.173Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-70k-in-may-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*