# Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 45% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 29 May 2026 18:31:06 GMT. 24h change -28.5pp, 24h volume $129.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-72500-in-may-2026-from-may-27
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-72500-in-may-2026-from-may-27
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-29T18:31:06.349Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **45¢** (45%) |
| Δ 1h | -5.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -28.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $129.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $158.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $54.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 28.5pp in 24h with 2.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 57h.

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 40 |
| Window start | 2026-05-27T19:00:21.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-29T09:22:05.000Z |
| Range | 26¢ → 86¢ |
| Net change | +11.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-bitcoin-dip-to-72500-in-may-2026-from-may-27` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? — 45% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-29T18:31:06.349Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-72500-in-may-2026-from-may-27.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*